Polling in an Unpredictable World: Trying to Predict the 2017 British Columbia Provincial Election

Mackenzie Lockhart, Political Science; Brent Holmes, Journalism
Coach House, Green College, UBC
Monday, April 24, 8-9 pm

After a year than has left many pollsters, journalists, and political scientists scratching their heads, the upcoming 2017 British Columbian election is shaping up to be an exciting one. The NDP are leading in the polls once again after a shocking reversal of fortune in 2013 that saw the BC Liberals, then trailing by 9 percent in the polls, win a fourth consecutive majority government. This panel will include an introduction to British Columbia politics, a discussion of polling in an increasingly unpredictable world, and a chance for further discussion with the panelists.

Mackenzie Lockhart is a Masters student in political science at the University of British Columbia. His research interests include elections and voters, specifically how voters make decisions during elections. In the fall, Mackenzie will be pursuing a PhD in Political Science at the University of California at San Diego focusing on American political behaviour.

Brent Holmes is completing a Masters of Journalism at UBC. He reports on politics, film and data. Most recently, he has reported for the Tyee on marijuana legalization policy in Canada, polling in British Columbia, and assisted in covering the B.C. 2017 Provincial Election.